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Electric vehicle sales spike has exploded cobalt prices
Since the beginning of this year, cobalt prices have started to skyrocket. Analysts see this as a link to the rise in sales of electric vehicles. Cobalt is part of the electrodes of lithium batteries, which are required more and more in the light of the «green» initiatives of the authorities around the world. This means that the demand for cobalt is starting to exceed supply, and there is very little chance of changing this. Batteries are at risk of rising in price.
Image source: Reuters
At the moment, a ton of cobalt is worth about $ 53 thousand on the London Stock Exchange of Non-Ferrous Metals. A similar price level had developed by December 20221, after which the prices for cobalt fell to a minimum of $ 25 thousand. per ton in 2021. The whole year before last and last year there was an abundance of cobalt, and in January 2021 it turned out that there might not be enough for everyone.
Dynamics of prices for cobalt in recent years on the London Stock Exchange of non-ferrous metals
Cobalt supply difficulties began due to logistics problems in South Africa, impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, Reuters reports. Most of the cobalt mines are located in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Some of them were stopped, for example, the Mutanda mine of Glencore was closed, as well as a significant part of the private mining of this metal was covered.
Dynamics of demand for cobalt in various market sectors
At the same time, analysts expect an increase in demand for cobalt in 2021 at the level of 18%, or by about 23 thousand. tons. This means that the volume of the global cobalt market in 2021 is estimated at 127 thousand. tons, and increased demand will lead to an annual deficit of this metal by about 1 thousand. tons. For comparison, in 2021, an unclaimed surplus of 1.1 thousand was formed in the cobalt market. tons, which led to the closure of mines.
Electric Vehicle Sales Expected Growth
As mentioned above, the main driver of demand for cobalt will be the demand for batteries. Moreover, for batteries for electric vehicles and for backup (buffer) power supplies. But mostly, nevertheless, the price of cobalt will depend on the demand for electric vehicles, and they promise to disperse at an accelerated pace. Thus, according to one of the forecasts, 50% more electric vehicles will be sold in 2021 than in 2021, and by 2025 the electric vehicle market will more than triple. With such an increase, cobalt will simply have nowhere to become cheaper.