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Localizing Chip Manufacturing Worldwide Would Increase Chip Prices By 65%
Calls to allocate huge funds for the development of national production of semiconductor components are now being challenged by TSMC, which is not interested in increasing competition. Industry representatives, supported by analysts, determined that if the main countries rushed to develop local production, then the chips would rise in price by 65%.
Image source: SIA, BCG
The corresponding study commissioned by the SIA Manufacturers Association was published by the Boston Consulting Group. This fifty-page report contains rather complex and ambiguous conclusions, but their essence can be described as follows: the geographically distributed ecosystem of the production of electronic components has the right to life, in the pursuit of «technological sovereignty» one should not deny its advantages.
In a complex and branched chain of suppliers, as the authors of the study found out, there are more than fifty positions for which the degree of geographic concentration of production exceeds 65%. In general, at least 75% of production facilities are located in China and East Asia, and in the case of advanced technological processes «thinner» 10 nm, all production is concentrated in Taiwan (92%) and South Korea (8%). In this study, the interests of market participants are mainly represented by American companies, so they do not hesitate to talk about the risks in the form of frequent natural disasters in the Asian region and its general political instability. If Taiwanese companies were to shut down for a year, according to the study, the global economy would lose at least $ 1 trillion.
Image source: SIA, BCG
Modeling the situation when the main regions of the planet have their own production capacities duplicating the capabilities of their neighbors, the authors of the study talk about high costs — to ensure «self-sufficiency» would have to spend at least $ 1.2 trillion worldwide. In fact, as it is argued, the geographical distribution of production allows annual savings of up to $ 125 billion, and the prices for the final semiconductor products, due to this, are 35-65% lower compared to the option providing for the «technological sovereignty» of the main regions of the planet.
It is necessary to localize the production of only those components, according to the authors of the study, which are important for the national infrastructure. In the United States, for example, for these purposes it will be enough to allocate from $ 20 to $ 50 billion, which the current authorities of the country are going to do within the framework of the program they have adopted to stimulate economic development. The demand for semiconductor components all over the world in the near future will grow by 4-5% annually, therefore, by the end of the decade, manufacturers need to double their capacity compared to the current level. This factor alone will require serious investments, therefore, aiming at full self-sufficiency in semiconductors is disastrous from an economic point of view.