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Massive electric vehicles will start to make a profit only when the battery price is $ 60 per 1 kWh
Automakers this year have become so emboldened that they began not only to disclose the timing of the complete cessation of production of cars with internal combustion engines, but also to name the dates upon which the production of electric vehicles will become as profitable as the production of traditional cars. Analysts believe that traction batteries will not soon fall in price to an acceptable level.
Image source: Aston Martin
The hottest heads claim that by the middle of the decade, electric cars will equalize in price with mass-produced cars with comparable characteristics, and in terms of production costs, they will equal in 2023. Bernstein experts, referred to by Bloomberg, urge not to rush with such predictions. Considering the latest Volkswagen initiative, which implies the transfer to electric traction of 70% of the entire range of passenger cars of related brands in Europe by 2030, they explain that the first time the concern will have to focus on the production of electric vehicles of more prestigious brands before this mode of transport appears in the range of mass brands.
Now the cost of storing 1 kWh in electric vehicle batteries reaches $ 140. It will have to be lowered to $ 60 before the same Volkswagen can profitably produce electric cars of mass brands like Skoda and Seat. In a modern electric vehicle, the traction battery occupies about 30% of the cost and almost half of the mass, so automakers are interested in the early development of new types of batteries, but it may take at least seven years to make significant progress in this direction when developing from scratch, according to participants market.
By the way, Volkswagen representatives themselves are confident that the profit margin in the production of electric vehicles will be equal to the profitability indicators of cars with internal combustion engines by 2025, considering the recently presented ID family as an example.four. Recall that General Motors promised to stop producing cars with internal combustion engines by 2035, the Volvo light line will do it five years earlier, like the Mini brand, but its parent company BMW will switch to electric only half of the new cars by 2030. By the end of the decade, Ford Corporation is ready to fully convert to the use of electric motors only the European range of passenger models. To achieve this goal, Ford will invest $ 29 billion in the development of next-generation cars by 2025.
British company Jaguar Land Rover will leave only electric cars in its lineup by 2025. Manufacturers of sports cars in their respective plans are guided mainly by the plans of states to ban the sale of new cars with internal combustion engines, which in some regions will come into force in 2030. At least the British companies McLaren and Aston Martin will do the same. It will be much more difficult to create mass models of electric vehicles with an acceptable combination of consumer qualities and prices.